Thursday, January 16, 2014

Data set in motion a strong year for Singapore


TommL | E+ | Getty Images


Aerial view of a container port in Singapore. All brands on the conatiners removed.


Singapore's non-oil exports rebounded strong in December, smashing consensus expectations. Economists told CNBC this jump could help propel the economy's recovery this year.


Non-oil domestic exports (Nodx), which include sectors such as electronics and pharmaceuticals, were up 6 percent in December from a year earlier, a sharp rebound on the 8.9 percent contraction in the previous month, and well above consensus expectations for a 1.7 percent rise.


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A strong increase in shipments of non-electronic products drove the rally, offsetting a 3 percent decline in electronic shipments, although this was an improvement on the previous months' 8.9 percent decline. The opening of a new petrochemicals plant by ExxonMobil in Singapore was also seen by analysts as a key driver of the uptick.


Economists told CNBC the strong pick-up in non-oil exports was a good sign for the economy amid better growth prospects in the rest of the global economy.


'We expect Singapore's gross domestic product to expand by 4 percent next year, mainly led by an improvement in exports and external demand,' said Michael Wan, economist at Credit Suisse's Singapore office.


Singapore's economy has been in the doldrums in recent years, as a slowdown in the world's major economies took its toll on the nation's export-focused economy. The economy grew a meager 1.2 percent in 2012, but has picked up in 2013, expanding 4.4 percent on year in the final quarter of last year. The government expects the economy to grow between 2 and 4 percent this year.


Wan told CNBC the pick-up in exports signaled a strong year to come for Singapore.


'In 2014, trade will continue to improve, we see Europe climbing out of recession, while U.S. growth will be better and the global trade cycle will improve over the coming quarters,' he said, adding that one headwind for the economy would be impact of government labor tightening measures.


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Other economists told CNBC they had been surprised and encouraged by the strong rebound in non-oil exports for last month.


'We had expected a weaker number from the chemical cluster due to poor refining margins, but we saw a sharp rebound from November's plunge, partly due to the new petro-chemical plant and it was also linked to the modest recovery in global demand,' said Song Seng Wun, regional economist at CIMB Research.


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